The Electric Car & How Environmentalists Saved the Internal Combustion Engine

By Frank Rovella
For the past 30 years, there has been a war raging against the internal combustion engine; its rallying cries are as familiar as peanut butter and jelly. Terms like smog alert, acid rain, carbon emissions, foreign oil, and global warming have been the lead in for thousands of speeches, news reports, articles, and studies. Ever the purveyor of public opinion, the federal government, led by the EPA and the environmental movement has steadily been raising the bar for fuel-efficiency. In 1985, the typical MPG for a passenger car was around 16 MPG. Today in 2015 the standard stands at 25.1 MPG; ten years from now, in 2025 it will more than double to 54.5 MPG. For the auto industry, compliance has been costly; however, their efforts have spawned a steady stream of innovation, not just in design but in materials technology as well. Though forced by the Fed, fuel economy is a market factor that sells cars, just as people want electric cars; they also want high fuel efficiency. Until recently the price of gasoline and its effect on the average consumer had a large impact on the sales and development of higher MPG cars. In fact, part of the recent declines in crude oil prices can be attributed to lower demand gleaned from higher fuel efficiency.
Oddly enough, now that fuel prices have plunged to the lowest levels since 1995, the expected increase in sales of lower MPG vehicle has not happened. This is an indication of a cultural shift, call it generational or conditioning, whatever its name it’s now clear that the average consumer wants clean high mileage vehicles. From super-efficient gas, diesel, electric, and hybrid cars, to cleaner running trucks, and trains operating on natural gas, efficiency sells, and the MPG numbers show it.
Where does this leave the internal combustion engine? The drive for higher gas mileage has brought about such innovation and efficiency that modern technology has made the good old gas engine far more practical than anyone thought possible. So much so that a recent report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that by 2040, 95% of cars on the road will be using an internal combustion engine. That’s right little Johnny, you may get that job pumping gas, after all. This may be a shocker to some and begs the question, what are the technologies that are bringing about all the change? As Red Green once said, “talk is cheap, let’s build.”

Starting with materials, when I was building a drag bike an old-timer told me “weight is horsepower.” It’s also fuel efficiency. A perfect example is the all-new aluminum Ford F150. Ford's extensive use of aluminum knocked off 300 lbs., which isn’t a lot considering the F150 weighs in at just under 5000 lbs. What’s important here is the effort, Ford has been playing with aluminum for over 40 years, this is a big step forward and utilizes design and manufacturing principals that will carry over to other lines. Of course, there are also advanced composites, plastics, and even a movement to bring back wooden cars. There are also advancements in alloys used in the engine and drivetrain that are making parts stronger, lighter that are able to dissipate heat better, and run at hotter temperatures with higher compression.

Under the hood, you'll find innovations like variable valve timing that can adjust to the optimal profile based on RPM. Then there's cylinder deactivation, the expanded use of turbochargers and superchargers that utilize direct fuel injection. Integrated starter/generator systems that can turn the engine off when not needed, such as at stoplights and standing.  Another major area is electronic engine management, the level of sensors and control over engine functions is staggering. Modern systems can process up to 1000 different items of data per second and are only limited by the number of sensors available. If you look at technology as a whole, there is a massive amount of R&D that goes into developing a new car. One would think that with all the money and effort that go into producing a modern car that getting to those high MPGs numbers would not be a problem. But, there is a roadblock that is simply the physical limitations of the design. Depending on fuel costs as we get closer to that required 54.5 MPG, the effects of diminishing returns will have a big impact on further developments.

To get those extra MPGs on gasoline alone without a hybrid solution may not be possible. For a vehicle with only an internal combustion engine, meeting the federal guidelines will require a diesel engine. Unless there is some unforeseen development, and it would have to be major, the diesel engine will surpass the gasoline engine in the number of vehicles that it's used in. There is no other economical way to achieve the required 54.5 MPG. This isn’t hard to imagine since the diesel already has quite a head start.
Of the top 10 highest MPG passenger cars in 2015, five were diesels. The Volkswagens Jetta, highest on the list at #4 comes in with an MPG rating of 42 city/48 highway. These are some pretty good numbers, but getting the rest of the way to the goal on combustion alone will require a bit more innovation than the standard engine design can provide.
Here is a design that could provide that innovation it’s called the Achates engine and was developed by Achates Power of San Diego. They claim that their design gets 30% better mileage than standard diesel, and double the efficiency of a gasoline engine. When I first looked at this, I read that it uses opposing cylinders. Cool just like my old Triumph, not quite, what they mean by opposing cylinders is that it uses two reciprocating pistons per cylinder. It’s also a two-stroke and has no cylinder head.

Since its a diesel there are no spark plugs, ignition is from the heat of compression, which brings up another thing this design does well, dissipate heat. The Achates engine has 30% less surface area than a comparable four-stroke, it is just a cylinder after all so getting to and removing the heat from combustion is a lot easier. Less heat means less wear and longer service life, add the use of a turbo or a blower and this thing could really make a dent in the diesel market.

I also want to note, that I am talking about low GVW passenger cars. When it comes to large scale transportation such as trucks and trains, the amount of torque needed will always require an internal combustion engine. Moving freight by truck or rail relies on burning a lot of diesel fuel though lower in cost as of late, it cannot compare to liquid natural gas (LNG). Because of this expense, many rail companies are exploring the conversion of their trains to LNG.

So where are all the electric cars? I’ve driven electric, fuel cell and hybrids cars, box trucks, little red wagons, and shopping carts. Personally, I think having an electric car would be fantastic, and I'd buy one in a heartbeat if I could get one that was practical and above all, cheap. What’s currently available for an all-electric car just ain't gonna cut it in Brooklyn, maybe Jersey, but hey where am I gonna plug the friggin thing in any way? I know not everyone lives in a city, but to gain wide acceptance a car has to appeal to people across a wide demographic.
It all comes down to battery technology, basic practicality, and expense. As of today, battery technology simply hasn't caught up with the gold standard of 300 miles on a single charge, (that’s equal to the typical full tank of gas). There are claims by Tesla to have achieved that milestone, but there is still nothing commercially available. In 2016, GM will be releasing their version, called the Bolt, not to be confused with the Volt, which is a hybrid. The Bolt is said to provide a 200-mile range and go for around $35,000. Okay, that’s a start, but $35k for what essentially is a novelty? I’m still not sold.

Battery charging is where the rubber meets the road for practicality. The needed infrastructure is certainly in place, millions of miles of the electric grid, an entire supply chain ready to serve. But you still need a place to plugin. If you live in a rural area or the suburbs and have an unchanging day-to-day routine no problem, pull into the driveway pop on a cord, and you're good to go. However, there is a growing urban population, and as I mentioned earlier, the mass adoption of technology means it has to be practical for everyone. If you don’t own a home or live in an apartment than plugging in every few days gets to be more of an issue. And then there is the question of the length of charge, 6, 8, 10 hours for a full charge, seems to be a lot of planning to maintain. Having a car in the driveway is supposed to give a measure of freedom, just get in and go, anytime. Unlike filling a fuel tank, there is not a lot of room for error, or you’ll be on the side of the road waiting for a wrecker.

Even with all of these drawbacks, there is still one thing to consider. If the auto industry could produce a cheap electric car with a 300+ mile range for around $20 to $25k, they would fly out of the showrooms. Automakers know this and have spent billions trying to develop a solution. These efforts are reflected in the news every day, articles expounding Tesla’s advancements, development projects from Google to Apple, and every major automaker on the planet, even a hybrid F1 class, its big news for a reason. The question now is whether the US market is even ready for a cheap all-electric car? American automakers have focused solely on the US market while it’s clear that Japan and China are far better suited to accommodate an all-electric vehicle, and would make a better proving ground as well. For the US, the realities of commuting, the infernal distances, and a growing urban population will dictate. Looking forward, with current technology it seems likely that reaching the federal mandate while appealing to a broad market base will require a diesel/electric hybrid solution.

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Breakthrough Innovation for Welding Dissimilar Metals

By Frank Rovella                                                                     Maximizing strength and minimizing weight is a critical design factor that has vexed engineers throughout the automotive and aerospace industries. Even with the advancements in material science and the increasing sophistication of FEA and modeling software, in the end, it always a trade-off between strength and weight, however, that may all be about to change. In a small shop in the industrial heart of Austria, a team from Voestalpine AG, one of Europe’s largest steel manufacturers may have developed a solution.

Until now there were not many options for joining dissimilar metals, mechanical fastening, brazing, and friction stir welding were the only available alternatives. The use of fasteners and adhesives has their place but are quite limited when it comes to a high strength joint. The remaining options are friction stir welding and brazing. Brazing isn't technically welding and doesn't offer the same strength characteristics to make it a viable option. Friction stir welding has been in use for some time, but it requires the use of high-pressure clamping and the exertion of heavy forces making it very expensive. It does have advantages in certain scenarios, but it lacks the flexibility to allow widespread deployment. There is also the development of an increasing number of special alloys and heat-treating processes that impart various characteristics. But, in the end, specialized materials and processes equal higher expenditures through limited material production and increased manufacturing costs.

The process that Voestalpine is developing may change all that, although it is still in the early stages of development it shows great promise. Unfortunately, there are very few technical details available, but it is basically MIG welding with special wire, an argon shield, and a zinc coating. There also a number of very critical, precise, and undisclosed parameters that have to be met for the process to be successful. Representatives of Voestalpine state that the weld is so robust that it can even be die-stamped with no effect on weld integrity.

If this new process delivers on its promise, then the economy of scale will take this quickly into the mainstream. The design flexibility it would give engineers would be unprecedented. Imagine the effects on a large structure such as airframe or an automotive chassis. For the automotive and aerospace industries, weight is horsepower, and a tool that would allow for practical welding of dissimilar metals will no doubt have a huge impact. This technology will also affect many other industries as well and could eventually make a significant impact on the cost of many high strength alloys. You'll probably never see one of these for sale at Home Depot, but if you're in the metal fabrication business, then this is certainly a development worth following.

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Opportunity or Obsolescence?

Automation, Supercomputers, & AI

By Frank Rovella
For the past two years, IBM has been involved in a lobbying effort to convince Congress to allow its Watson supercomputer technology to be used as a medical diagnostic tool. You may remember Watson by its now-famous victory on the game show “Jeopardy!”. IBM wants Congress to classify Watson as a diagnostic tool rather than a medical device. This will allow IBM to avoid the long and costly clinical trials that medical devices are subject to. If approved, and all indications are that it will, this would truly be groundbreaking, and a first for the medical industry, which until now has relied on the expertise, and experience of people who have dedicated their lives to medicine.

Proponents such as Eric Topol, a genomics professor at the Scripps Research Institute has used the technology and is excited about the prospect of its widespread use. He states, “No human being can read five billion pages of medical literature in two seconds.” Of course, if adopted, a physician will make the final decision. However, there are many who worry that this powerful technology will make its way beyond the control of a physician. This could undermine one of the key aspects of the doctor-patient relationship, trust.

The widespread propagation of technology such as Watson has far-reaching implications, both economically and ethically. In manufacturing and industrial applications, deployment of new technology is standard practice and is in large part the reason that the US has become so competitive in the world market. The demands for higher precision, faster throughput, and lower cost keep raising the bar. The new technology this is driving is revolutionizing the workplace in ways not even thought of just a few years ago. As Kurzweil’s predictions of the exponential growth of computing power have come to fruition, so follows the automation of manufacturing processes. The subsequent transformation this has precipitated has been very subtle, so much so that most people hardly notice; an upgrade here and new function there. These are small incremental advancements that have occurred over long a period of time and can require a perspective spanning years to comprehend fully.

Automation: The use of automation is everywhere; we’ve all seen it and work with it every day. From AutoCAD, CAD/CAM, and CNC controls to telemetry on an N2 tank, monitoring software connected to hundreds of thermocouples and pressure transducers, a robotic pick and place, or any one of a thousand custom-designed automated systems. Automation simply put is the conversion of a manual task into a hands-free process. In one of my recent articles titled “The Next Industrial Revolution,” I wrote about the changes brought about by automation. For example, because of automation, over the past 20 years of jobs for machinists have decreased by 20%. A recent study conducted by Oxford University concluded that due to the widespread deployment of automation and computerization that 45% of jobs in the United States will disappear over the next 20 years.

Supercomputers: IBM calls the Watson system cognitive, and many people are identifying it and others like it as artificial intelligence (AI), in reality, it is neither. Supercomputers like Watson are just very large, very powerful mainframe computers using millions of processors. Although the use of supercomputers may be out the reach of most shops, high power computing using increasingly sophisticated software is not. What this means to design and engineering is what automation means to manufacturing. Advancements in MRP, design, modeling, and FEA software are becoming less expensive and more accessible. The ability to determine mechanical stress and vibration, the effects of motion and fatigue, as well as heat transfer characteristics and even electrostatics, can all be done long before the chips of a prototype fly. This is not even touching on the developments in 3D printing. For industries such as injection molding, these tools have provided significant advantages. Considerations for machining tool steels, getting the correct mold flow

characteristics and dozens of other factors used to take a highly skilled engineer and a

seasoned toolmaker. Now, most of the upfront development is done in the office. In the realm of computational fluid dynamics (CFD), the use of supercomputers is significantly decreasing development time, increasing accuracy, and making system modifications far less painful. Think of the complexity of designing or engineering additions to a modern refinery. The ability to determine complex CFDs brings higher efficiency, faster response to required process changes, and a higher level of safety, all at a fraction of the cost of traditional methods.

Artificial Intelligence (AI): Once this is developed, and it’s just a matter of time, everything changes for the engineer and in time to everyone else in the process stream. Development of an AI has been coined as “The Singularity”, meaning the point where computing power surpasses that of human ability and/or becomes self-aware; it has also been called man’s last invention. There are many views pro and con, and some who say that a truly self-aware machine will never be achieved, there is even argument as to how self-awareness is even determined. Much of public perception is media-driven; Hollywood has made a lot of money portraying self-aware machines as monsters bent on ridding the world of us. I think a more accurate depiction of what we can expect was exhibited in the recent movie “Her” (my wife made me watch it).

There are a lot of people taking the development of AI very seriously; over the past four years, funding for AI research projects has soared. In 2014, a total of 16 AI startups received over $309 million in funding. This wasn’t a Kickstarter campaign either, companies like Google, Amazon and Facebook are betting heavily on AI and are putting up the money to prove it.

Automation, computing, and eventually AI are all intertwined and will spell the end of work as we know it. What AI will ultimately mean to jobs and the industries that are our livelihoods isn’t hard to predict. A system that can learn can bring incredible speed and accuracy to almost every industry. The wild card is a system that can learn and self-improve.

The widespread use of automation, computing, and eventually AI will be driven as always, by the economy of scale. As each new advancement is adopted, it gets less expensive and can be deployed by smaller organizations. For manufacturing, it's already happening, the ability to work “lights out” is a typical example of a fully automated system. If you go to the trade shows, every year systems require less operator intervention. CAD and MRP software is getting more sophisticated, 3D printing and materials technology is going through the roof. I’ve even read about an algorithm that can generate technical writing.

There are a lot of people who would like to think that all of this is far in the future, but it’s not. We are on the doorstep of profound changes in our society, and as with so much in the world today, it’s all uncharted territory. This is a story of vicissitudes that is part and parcel of every revolution, whether it is industrial, social, or political.

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